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Stick to Your Plan

Stick to Your Plan

Stick to Your Plan

Date: 11/22/2021


In my experience from both trading and sports investing, I have found that there are many ways to "skin the cat" of success.

It is our job as speculators, traders, investers, gamblers or whatever we choose to call ourselves to find an edge and exploit it. That is how you make money in the risk business.

As far as sports investing goes, I choose to look at percentages. I use my formula to determine a teams actual chance of winning a game. If I come up with 50% is the chance I believe a team has of winning and the oddsmakers say they should only win 43% of the time and give +130 odds, I have a play. It's really that simple.

Now this can hapeen with favorites as well but those plays are few and far between. The reason is the public bets heavy on favorites. It's the nature of the beast. Because of this there are alot of overlays everyday with the vast majority being on underdogs.

My method has been successful for a very long time and will always make money in the end, however equity swings are unavoidable.

Think about casinos. Do you think they ever lose money? Of course they do. There are days some casinos get set back several hundered thousand dollars and even millions. But in the long term they always win, even with the tiny little edge they have in most games.

The hardest part of following along and doing what I do is to stay disciplined. You must keep going (if you trust the numbers) even during extended losing streaks when favorites are winning a lot of games. Rest assured, it doesn't last.

Also, and just as important, you must not get cocky when all the dogs started winning at a huge rate.

In the end, as long as my lines stay sharp ( meaning my actual %'s accuracy), I will always win. And I do.

In closing, let me hit you with something that should really excite you. Let's say that my ROI for an entire year is just 3%. Now let's assume, I play 5 games a day, 365 days per year. I will assume I bet $1000 on each game.

5 X 365 X 1000 = 1,825,000 or $1.825 millon put in play. Now what is 2% of that? The anwer is $36.500.

My friends, what if the ROI is 15%?

 

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