The Law of Large Numbers

I decided to write this atrlicle today for the sole purpose of referring back to it in the future when a large basket of my plays has been recorded here on "The Sports Watch Monitor" I believe it will be a very powerful eye opener.

I wrote an email to the principals of the service expressing my pleasure with the fact that I have been in a pullback since moving from another service.

Yesterday in the NFL, there were games decided in the last couple minutes and some on the very last play. In baseball this week, many games were decided in the last inning that went against me. 

I do not say this to complain or indicate I got screwed. I say it because this kind of stuff happens all the time. This happens just as many times in my favor as it does against me. It just is what it is.

That is the express nature of the "Law of Large Numbers". If you flip a coin 10 or 20 times, you may very well see an expremely tilted result. Try it. Take a coin and flip it 10 times. I would be willing to wager that it will not come up 5 heads and 5 tails. In fact, just to prove my point, I am going to pause the writing of this article and do it right now.

Result: 7 heads and 3 tails. That's 70% win rate. Do you think this is sustainable long term? I hope I have made my point.

I want to close with some advice. If you find a service or handicapper you think is good, look at their long term ROI. If it is good, you can feel confident and you won't worry when the cards don't come your way on a particular day.